NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		19		2			20		5
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Severe weather, including hail, possible again today!

A shortwave approaches the region as a catalyst for another stormy day. SPC has issued a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today for both districts. A lot of uncertainty exists on coverage and intensity of storms later today.

D1...

A less impressive environment for severe weather today. However, we are still watching the potential for gusty winds and hail across D1. Marginal instability is in place today with CAPE values 500-1,250J/kg. Lower dew points than yesterday, but more than enough for storm development today with them in the mid-upper 50s. Decent shear and high 0-3km SRH, but 0-1km SRH is low, limiting any tornado threat. There is a cap today, but it's on the weaker side. However, given weak instability and current lack of daytime heating this could be problematic to break today. Clouds remain this morning, depending on when they exit the district this will impact the development of storms. If we can get clearing early there is a better chance of strong storms. Storms should initiate to the SW of district in MT, WY, and SD early this afternoon. Based off simulated reflectivity from multiple models and hodographs, a messy multicellular storm mode is most likely. A low will pass north of the district into the overnight hours, but far enough away that showers are very unlikely. This northwesterly flow will help usher in drier air and be responsible for the increase in wind tomorrow.

High: Mid 70s Low: 50 degrees Dewpoint (max): Mid-Upper 50s Timing: Storms will begin moving into district between 19-21z this afternoon.

D2...

Similar story to D1 today, gusty winds and hail are possible but the environment is not as favorable as it was yesterday. Marginal instability exists today with CAPE between 500-1,250J/kg. Less shear and SRH than D1 will help lead to disorganized storms. Storms are expected initiate over western MT and move in from SW ND later this afternoon. Best chance for any hail will be early on in the hail forecast period, but if strong storms can persist a hail threat could continue into the overnight hours. Training thunderstorms will have to be monitored for heavy rain. Showers and even some thunderstorms will linger into the nighttime and early morning hours as the low passes over the region and brings northwesterly on its backside.

High: Mid-Upper 70s Low: Mid-Upper 50 Dewpoint (max): Mid-Upper 50s Timing: Storms will move into district between 20-22z this afternoon.

Looking ahead... A bit cooler and windier tomorrow, but not as gusty as last week. Expect a warming trend throughout the week. Next couple days look pretty quiet, but showers in D2 tomorrow will need to be monitored.