NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		2		8			0		10
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Lynnlee Rosolino

Synopsis

All conditions seem to be right today for severe weather. A surface low pressure system moving Northeast from Wyoming along with a short wave propagating East from Montana provide a substantial forcing for significant weather. Dewpoints will be in the mid-60s and there is sufficient precipitable water in the atmosphere. CAPE values are in the 2000-3000s in both districts, which is ideal for severe weather. Some warm air advection trailing the low will provide some extra lift as the warm air rises.

Beginning around 0Z in D2 a westward propagating cell will briefly move into the Northwest of the district. As that storm weakens and moves out of district a set of storms potentially developing into a squall line as it moves through will move in from Eastern Montana. These storms have a very high probability of producing hail. They should move out by 10Z. D1 will get a line of storms beginning around 2Z. This line of storms will migrate in from South Dakota and move through the district by 8Z.