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NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)2708
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGRAINNO SIGNO SIGHAILNO SIG

Forecaster: Lynnlee Rosolino

Synopsis


A cold front will be moving into and through the region allowing for some potential weather. Dewpoints remain high providing plenty of moisture for developing storms. CAPE values seem to allow for possible strong convection providing a good environment for the storms moving in district. D2 especialy will be influenced by a jet streak passing just North of the district.

Isolated cells could pop up in the Eastern part of D2 as early as 0Z. These cells have potential to hail briefly in district. They will likely be small and scattered.

A small short wave will move into D2 from Montana providing extra lift. D2 has potential for a hail threat from 2Z until 7Z following the cold front. The storm will likely weaken slightly as it passes through the district, but still has potential for significant weather. D1 will likely experience rain during the same time period, but there isn't much potential for significant storms nor seeding since cloud bases will be high.

6/5/21


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)


Very high overnight dewpoints

Wind shift indicates a cold front. A shortwave disturbance is also visible.

Some hail is possible in D2



Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 -3.2 39.2 55.4 289 887 -39 29 46
ISN 2.3 28.1 46.1 87 0 0 0 50
MOT -4 38.8 56.3 329 927 -47 29 64

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 32 17.7 42 48.2 -3.2 1.4
ISN 26 12.5 25.8 37.7 2.3 0
MOT 33 20.4 42.8 49.3 -4.1 1.7

Weather Features

  • Cold Front
  • Jet Stream (PVA) RRQ or LFQ
  • Short Wave Trough
  • Zonal Flow