NDCMP Weather Forecast

Forecaster: Ben Schaefer

Synopsis

Another quiet day is expected for western North Dakota. An upper-level ridge remains present over the area, as well as a strong surface high pressure, keeping activity at bay. Winds were light and variable this morning as we sit under the center of the high pressure. Temperatures will range from the mid-70s near Stanley to perhaps mid-80s near Williston and Watford City. The air has been dried out due to persisting westerly winds over the past few days. Hence, dew points will be low, ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. No instability or forcing will be present anywhere in or near district 2.

Our pattern does begin to change this evening through the overnight hours. The surface high will slowly shift eastward across North Dakota today. By late this afternoon, western ND will be on the western side of this high, essentially in between the high and a low pressure building out in central MT. This will yield southerly winds of around 5-15kts, which will be present all day Monday and perhaps Tuesday. With this southerly flow, a strong 25-40 kt low-level jet will be present tonight, especially across SW ND. However, the thermodynamic environment is entirely unfavorable for convection. These southerly winds will begin to bring better moisture into the region, as well as non-zero instability for Monday and Tuesday. Furthermore, the upper-level ridge will begin to break down as a trough approaches from the west. This trough and associated surface low pressure system will likely approach the district on Tuesday. With adequete thermodynamics, this could perhaps bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will be something to monitor over the next couple days.

9/1/24

Indices

Weather Features

• Low Level Jet
• Low-Level Moisture Advection (SE)
• Surface High Pressure
• Upper Level Ridge

Soundings