NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)00225
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherRAINTSRANO SIG

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis


The main weathermaker for D2 today appears to be a cold front. As an area of low pressure makes its way SE across Alberta throughout the afternoon, it will drag a cold front into the vicinity of NE MT & NW ND by 0z. Daytime heating & low level warm air advection due to a deepening upper level ridging pattern across the Mountain West will allow temperatures to reach into the mid 90's but dewpoints will remain relatively mediocre ahead of the cold front. Additionally, weak to moderate capping will be present in the vicinity of Mountrail Co. around 0z when forcing from the cold front is set to affect the area. Nonetheless, dynamic lift from the frontal passage is expected to spark some storms but limited MLCAPE & widespread capping will likely prevent any of these storms from becoming hail threats despite impressive mid level lapse rates. After these storms, not much more activity is expected as the ridge continues to build in into tomorrow & forcing becomes scant throughout the morning.

Mountrail Co... Sunny skies with clouds increasing into late afternoon & early evening & temperatures reaching into the toasty mid 90's. Best t-storm chances throughout the evening, diminishing into late evening & leaving completely by early morning. Clear skies are expecting to stick around until breifing tomorrow.

9/1/22


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

Surface Temperatures 21z

Surface Dewpoints 21z

Theta e 0z

MLCAPE & MLCIN 0z

200 mb 0z

500 mb 0z

WPC Surface Analysis 0z

NAM NEST sounding for Mountrail Co. at 0z


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 0.4 20.9 50.7 89 223 -233 0 16
ISN -0.5 29.1 51.7 154 24 -64 2 39
MOT -0.1 24.6 51.1 156 174 -220 2 44

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 24 11.9 20.5 32 -0.1 3.2
ISN 28 13.6 29.6 40.1 -0.6 1.4
MOT 25 15.3 24.7 35 -0.5 2.9

Weather Features

  • Cold Front
  • Speed Shear
  • ThetaE Ridge
  • Upper Level Ridge