NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		0		12			0		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		NO SIG		TSRA	HAIL		NO SIG		TSRA

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis

A quiet day for both districts today as a surface low centered over E MT propogates SE & drags an attendant warm front & cold front with it throughout the afternoon across SW ND & into W SD by evening. As upper level ridging builds in, the greatest forcing will remain to the West of both districts as shortwave impulse is set to run through the ridge further into central ND. Additionally, dewpoints in the vicinity of District 1 in the mid 40's to upper 40's at best during the day & capping will likely not allow for storm development even given any marginal forcing that makes it that far West as CAPE values will remain marginal. Forcing in the vicinity of most of D2 will be negligible but dewpoints will make it into the low 50's in the vicinity of Southern D2 with CAPE values in the 500-1500 J/kg*k range. This will support a chance for pop up thunderstorms with a relatively marginal hail threat, primarily in Mackenzie County, maximizing in the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating & diminishing into early evening. By mid to late morning, a series of shortwave impulses make their way across E MT as a result of a shallow trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest interacting with a strong high pressure centered on the four corners region. Additionally, a developing 80 kt jet streak will move NE across E MT during the early morning hours, putting W ND in the left exit region & providing some lift in the early to mid morning hours. As early morning capping begins to wane with daytime heating resuming, rapid moisture & warm air advection with winds switching to the WSW will allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50's & low 60's. Therefore, Instability will be sufficient for storms to fire if the multiple upper & mid level distubances set to move in tomorrow come early. Considerable uncertainty exists as to whether these storms will be able to fire or not as timing of the arrival of forcing mechanisms is spread between models.

D1... Hot, dry, & breezy today. Temperatures reaching into the low 90's by mid afternoon. No significant weather is expected for today as capping remains strong enough to keep a lid on marginal instability. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase rapidly as the morning goes on into early afternoon as instability builds in quickly & forcing arrives in the vicinity.

D2... Hot & breezy today. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80's by mid afternoon with pop-up shower chances maximizing around 21z in Southern Mackenzie Co. Calm conditions are set to build in into evening & overnight with capping building in overnight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase rapidly as the morning goes on into early afternoon as instability builds in quickly & forcing arrives in the vicinity.