NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		20		4			20		6
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	TSRA		HAIL		TSRA	TSRA		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Danielle Harr

Synopsis

The remnants of the stationary front from yesterday are still present this morning. It is expected to become a warm front by the end of today. This may allow for storm development in both districts. The general storm flow for both districts today is westerly. There is also potentially a slight upper level ridge over western ND in the early afternoon. One more notable factor is the theta-e ridge that is sitting over D2 and slightly over D1. These all indicate that storms may occur in both districts, especially earlier in the afternoon and potentially a second round closer to 01-02Z.

D1 is expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's today. Dewpoints will start out in the low 60's and decrease to the upper 40's by about 01Z. Then these dewpoints will likely increase to the mid 50's into the overnight hours. The atmosphere is fairly saturated into the upper-mid levels, with peaks around 20Z and 01Z. CAPE will likely remain between 100-400 for the entirety of the day, but will become more capped after about 04-05Z after the loss of daytime heating. The combination CAPE, dewpoint/saturation, and lift all support the potential for a marginal hail threat midday and into the evening, with a slight chance for thunderstorms before 20Z and after 04Z.

Some small pop up showers have already started in D2 this morning, which will likely continue until after 17Z. D2's high temperatures will be in the lower 90's today. Dewpoints are similar to that of D1, however, they retain their strength for a bit longer. There will be areas in D2 that will have upper 50's to low 60's for the entirety of the day, which is sufficient for storm development. There is saturation present up into the upper-mid levels, especially around 20Z and 01Z. CAPE values are sitting in the 500-1700 range, which is enough to cause some stronger storms with hail threats. The UND HAILCAST shows some potential smaller hail around 22Z and 04Z, which supports this. Because of this, isolated pop-up storms have the potential to develop prior to 20Z, and there is a hail threat until 06Z after that. Any storms that may happen into the overnight hours will likely be remnants of the daytime storms.