NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		3		14			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

We continue to sit in an upper level pattern that is mostly zonal with periodic fluctuations to somewhat SW flow. This pattern continues to be conducive for periodic shortwaves to move through the flow, like the strong one that came through last night. We have a break from shortwave activity during the day today, before seeing another wave pass close by tonight and tomorrow. Gusty winds this morning should calm down and be light out of the north this afternoon. With the overnight rain, this will not diminsh surface dew points a lot, as they will linger in the 50s throughout the period. Decent instability with only modest capping exists through most of the period, including overnight. This means sufficient forcing could produce some thunderstorms. Tonight, a shortwave does move across the MT/WY border and into W SD. The NAM Nest keeps any convection sotuh of D1 with the passage of this wave. The HRRR solution is farther north, and it does show some precipitation bleeding over into D1 late this evening. The NWS keeps Bowman in a 40% chance of storms overnight, so I will do a similar CYA with HAIL, even if I think the storms will be mostly south and I don't expect actual seeding operations tonight.

Tomorrow morning another impulse shows up on the NAM near briefing. This one is a little farther north and impacts D1 more squarely. Both the NEST and HRRR pick up on this impulse and generate convection right around briefing. The HRRR is a little stronger and also a little later with the development of convection.This will require monitoring, since operations would be more likely if this convection develops. In the longer range, we continue to see periodic waves in favorable flow, with the NWS teasing a stronger severe threat over the weekend and into early the following week.