NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		3		12			4		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		NO SIG		NO SIG	TSRA		NO SIG		NO SIG

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

Some TSRA may linger across D2 today. NO SIG is expected across D1.

Currently, a ridge is establishing itself around a high in Nevada. This ridge extends northeastward into Montana and southern Canada, bringing northerly upper level flow for western North Dakota. This will move east throughout the week, eventually being over the region. Down below, lower pressure is building to the west that will slowly move east. The low level pressure gradient will flip winds to be out of the south, with a low-level jet overnight. Moisture and CAPE linger around in D2 more than D1, gradient southwest to northeast.

D1: As the ridge moves closer to western North Dakota, warmer temperatures increase the dewpoint depression. In addition, capping is stronger compared to previous days. A low-level jet does ramp up overnight, but again moisture is limited. As a result, NO SIG is expected throughout the forecast period.

D2: Moisture and CAPE linger around in D2, making conditions slightly more favorable for convection. Dew points will reach near 60 while CAPE remains above 1000 J/kg. Cooler temperatures also limit the dewpoint depression throughout the afternoon. Capping is stronger, but will break during peak heating. Though smoke will also be present, there is a nonzero chance for isolated pulse TSRA through the evening. After sunset (4z), capping will set in and prevent new development. NO SIG is expected after 4z, with the low level jet diminishing after 12z.

The ridge will be squarely overhead by Wednesday, and will limit precipitation for a couple days.