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NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		21		6			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms today that could contain large hail!

D1... Clear skies to start out the morning with potential for increasing cloudiness from some decaying showers over MT and WY is possible especially in the western portions of district. This will be important for our severe weather risk today as clouds will limit our daytime heating thus limiting our potential for a more severe solution to occur. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 50s to even low 60s possible. This will help provide 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE to develop this afternoon and diminish as the night progresses. A dynamic weather system will approach the region towards the evening hours providing necessary lifting for showers and thunderstorms. Expect a nice trough bringing quite a bit of cyclonic vorticty advection as well as a cold front and low pressure system. There could be multiple rounds of thunderstorms this evening with the potential for the first one in the late afternoon. This has the most uncertainty, but any storms that develop would likely be more discrete in nature and easily become large hail threats. Shear will be sufficent to support strong to severe thunderstorms. Although, shear profiles are not super supportive of more supercellular structure which is where some more uncertainty comes in. This will likely play more into the next round supporting a more linear type storm mode. As the front approaches in the evening towards sunset, it is likely for a squall line/MCS to approach from the southwest. The main threat would be damaging winds, but small to even severe hail is quite likely. Finally, a soaking rain event will likely unfold overnight with mainly stratiform rain and embedded TSRA. A widespread 1-2" is likely across the district. CAPE really drops off after the frontal passage so it is expected for this weather overnight to remain TSRA only. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through briefing tomorrow. The SPC has put us in a slight risk, notably for damaging winds having part of the district in hatched for significant damaging winds. The WPC also has district in a slight risk for flash flooding today.

Looking Ahead... Mainly quiet weather expected as an upper level ridge takes hold of the weather. There could be a few chances of isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms as weak shortwaves ride the ridge. However, there is no strong indication of any significant chances for hail through the end of project.