NDCMP Weather Forecast

Forecaster: Danielle Harr

Synopsis

There is some potential for thunderstorms and rain in both districts, and a very slight chance for hail in D2 today. This is due to the presence of 2 separate cold fronts moving through today and tonight. The first one is currently moving through the state, which could encourage lifting for potential rain and thunderstorms in D2 prior to 20Z. However, these will likely be generally more on the pop-up shower side, as the dewpoints are not expected to increase as much until after 20Z. Atmospheric flow is largely southerly throughout the day. A slight low level jet will also potentially allow for greater development overnight around 06Z.

In D1, the high temperature will be in the lower 80's. The dewpoints will start out in the low 40's in the early afternoon, and increase into the mid to upper 40's by 00Z. Dewpoints will then quickly increase to the lower 60's around 02Z, which is the point where the greatest chances of rain and thunderstorms begins. This dewpoint is retained overnight and into the morning hours (until around 11Z on Thursday), and will remain in the low 50's after this. The midlevels and into the upper levels are also saturated, especially nearing 03Z, which is likely due to the second cold front that is expected to push through to North Dakota around that time. As for instability, CAPE will increase to the 100's by about 19Z (however it's still too dry for rain or storms at this point), and into the 600's in some locations by 02Z. This increase by 02Z is favorable for storm development, and can be supported by the potential incoming lift and the surface/midlevel moisture content. This CAPE will become much more capped by around 08Z, but still remain in the 100's until about 14Z the next day. Because of this, pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible from 00Z onward in D1.

D2 can also expect potential thunderstorms, rain, and even a slight chance of hail today. The high temperatures are expected to be around the mid-80's. The dewpoint temperatures will start out in the high 50's as early as 17Z and increase to the low 60's around 00Z. This will be retained overnight and into the next morning. These dewpoints are sufficient for storm development throughout the day. Just like in D1, D2 is also saturated at the mid and upper levels into the overnight hours and peaking around 03Z, supporting deeper storm development. The CAPE will be consistently slightly higher than in D1 throughout most of the day, reaching the 200's (slightly capped) by around 17Z and increase to around 700 (and in some places potentially into the low 1000's) by 18Z relatively uncapped. It will decrease to the 200-500 range by 00Z and keep decreasing until 14Z on Thursday. Prior to 20Z, there is a slight chance for pop up showers and thunderstorms, as the first cold front that is currently over the state is moving southward. After 20Z, there is a slight chance for hail development, as the CAPE reaches sufficient levels and most levels are also saturated enough. After about 02Z, the chances for hail diminish and thunderstorms and showers are expected overnight and into the morning.

6/14/23

Indices

Weather Features

• Cold Front
• Low Level Jet

Soundings