NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)312312
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis


A stacked low moved through ND the last couple days and is currently spinning to the NE in Canada. This is pulling around colder air at all levels. It is also resulting in relatively dry air. Western ND is in NW flow both at the surface and aloft. There is almost no instability in the districts so convective chances are virtually none. The one potential "concern" is development of a cumulus field in western D2, where very minimal CAPE is present. This does not extend down to district 1. I expect this to be no more than some agitated cumulus and not reaching rain potential. As daytime heating diminishes in the evening so does the cumulus field. After that I expect no further cloud development or chances of rain for either district.

Tomorrow will be similar with cool temps and dry air, but with even less cloud development. A shortwave on Friday may bring some showers to D1.

6/1/22


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

500mb Chart showing stacked low to our NE in Canada

Surface winds out of the NW

Dew Points are very low.

Watford City shows a bit of MUCAPE this afternoon, but not much.

01Z HRRR Reflectivity shows some cloud development.

00Z UND WRF showed showers over D2 this afternoon, but this seems aggressive.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 3.5 18.6 47.7 57 0 0 0 30
ISN 2.1 28.3 50.5 105 19 -13 2 48
MOT 2.7 26.2 49.9 103 -3 -12 0 59

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 26 16.2 15.1 39.4 3.4 0
ISN 31 19 26.2 49.7 2.1 0.2
MOT 30 19.4 23.5 47.6 2.6 0.3

Weather Features

  • 500mb Temps < -15C
  • Surface Low
  • Upper Level Ridge