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NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)01200
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis


Drying out... cool and smokey!


D1...Rain has already moved out of district this morning and is leaving smokey and windy conditions with visibilities below 3 SM. Looks like the smoke is going to stick around enough to cause degraded surface visibilities over the next 24 hours as northerly flow from a surface high pressure system brings it down from Canada. Weak, zonal flow aloft is in place today with no sort of impulses expected. Below average temperatures today and it will be dry.

Looking Ahead...Generally quiet weather with a slow warming trend back to near average for this time of year will be the trend of our medium range forecast. Smoke could also stick around for a couple days causing reductions in visibilities. A ridge sets up towards the middle/end of the week that could allow a few weak impulses to ride along it bringing a nonzero chance for a few afternoon showers. We will monitor but looking like very no sig conditions for the remainder of project.

9/5/23


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

NAM showing high temperatures today.

NAM dew points at 0z.

NAM 10m wind at 0z.

HRRR near surface smoke at 21z.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 8.4 16.9 36.7 93 0 0 0 7
ISN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 21 14.2 8.5 24.7 7.8 0
ISN 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOT 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weather Features

  • Smoke
  • Surface High Pressure
  • Zonal Flow