NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		20		8			20		8
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Grant Peterson

Synopsis

A couple rounds of high-based thunderstorms that may turn linear are possible this afternoon into the evening. Anticipating a hail threat in both districts. The thermodynamics seem to be a bit more favorable in D2 than D1, however that was the case yesterday but D1 ended up having a slightly better environment.

Western North Dakota today will be placed under the eastern edge of a widespread upper-level ridge blanketed across the western US. Another mid-level shortwave trough steals the star of the show today, bringing in ample vertical forcing. A stubborn cap is currently in western ND with no plans of leaving until later this afternoon once the shortwave kicks out the CIN and brings in lower pressure. The shortwave trough will bring in plenty of moist air from the south, ample for convection. Lastly, most CAM's are advertising respectable amounts of MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg in D2 and 100-400 J/kg in D1. I would not be surprised if D1 gets enough daytime heating they could be getting a bit more than 100-400. Both districts are expected to receive steep mid level lapse rates in the evening. Lastly, the shear is marginal, reaching around 25-30 knots. These storms may initiate as isolated but may merge together and turn linear because of the limited shear. There is a surface low that will also be advecting east with a cold front attached to it that will make its way through overnight that could also initate some convection however it may bringing cold and dry northwest flow.

D1: CAM's are all suggesting that the mid-level shortwave this evening will not drop down any further south than central ND, but yesterday models made that mistake and misplaced how deep the trough will go down. I am going to anticipate the models are going to misplace the shortwave or underestimate how deep the trough will be. If this is the case, they will have just as favorable conditions as D2. Once the sun drops, they may have 700 mb temps at or near 14 degrees.

D2: Even if the trough deepens further south, I am pretty confident that it won't really affect D2 and that they will have plenty of favorable conditions for a marginal hail threat today. Models are also suggesting that there will be a surface low located in or near D2 in the evening that may initiate convergence and bring a second round of convection overnight.

We will mainly clear out after midnight into Saturday morning. There may be some lingering showers with embedded thunderstorms. I am not anticipating them to be possible for operations, but we need to continue to monitor the changing conditions. Saturday evening we will more than likely have another opportunity for operations with thunderstorms likely.