DWR is committed to creating an inclusive digital environment. As we strive to fully implement WCAG 2.1, if you encounter any accessibility issues or require any assistance, please alert us so we can determine a reasonable accommodation. Please see our Accessibility page for contact information.

NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		0		6			23		7
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		RAIN	NO SIG		HAIL		RAIN

Forecaster: Grant Peterson

Synopsis

Shortwave trough day 5.

Conditional scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into the overnight. The main threat is severe wind and hail, with a small chance of a brief tornado. The SPC has a slight severe threat for D2 and a marginal severe threat for D1. At the moment it appears D2 will have a more favorable environment for severe hail than D1. But, we do have to keep in mind that on shortwave trough forecast days it can be quite conditional so D1 is not out of the question for a possible marginal hail threat.

Currently, we are on the east end of the upper-level ridge to our west. The upper-level will be rather zonal today. So what is the driving force today? You guessed it, another mid-level shortwave trough. The timing of this wave is quite uncertain as CAMs disagree so it something the mets will have to continue to monitor. If the wave comes in earlier than anticipated the risk of severe weather is a greater threat, if it shows up later than there will be less of a threat. With the short-wave a surface low pressure will emerge around the Canada/ND/MT border this late afternoon and will propagate east bringing in moisture from the south because of a warm front attached to it. Most CAMs agree that both districts will be in the upper 50?s and 60?s however I think D2 could reach 70 as they underestimated yesterday. I am anticipating if the position of the surface low holds true then it will be a bit drier in D1 than in D2. It is important that we continue to monitor the location of this low as it will more than likely drive convection initiation. If the low stays north in D2 then eventually the wind will shift from the south to the northwest which will bring in cooler and drier air that will diminish chances for convective rain. If there is convection in either district it could be quite severe as we could see MUCAPE values of 1000+ in D1 and 2000+ in D2 today. After 06Z I am anticipating the environment will be capped off and we may see some rain but nothing severe.

D1: I am not confident that D1 will have a severe hail threat as I think the low will stay north and that the stronger CAPE values will also stay north and east. Since of all the uncertainty in todays forecast it is better to play it safe and to look out for a marginal hail threat. There may be some lingering rain in the morning but I am not anticipating it to be convective with the capped environment.

D2: My confidence is much higher for a significant hail threat here. The only thing I am uncertain about is the timing of the possible hail threat, which is why I forecasted such a long forecast period (23-07Z).