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NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		3		12			2		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		NO SIG		NO SIG	NO SIG		NO SIG		NO SIG

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

NO SIG is expected in D2 throughout the forecast period. Though conditions are slightly more favorable, D1 is forecasted as NO SIG as well.

Currently, western North Dakota is under northwest flow sandwiched between an upper level trough to the east and a ridge to the west. This will be maintained throughout the forecast period as the ridge becomes more influential across the region. Flow is weak, and humidity remains low. Down below, low-level high pressure currently resides in central North Dakota. This will slide east throughout the forecast period, bringing a subtle low level jet up to D1 overnight. Dew points will be maintained in the low to mid 50s through tomorrow.

D2: NO SIG is maintained throughout the forecast period. Though surface dew points are into the mid 50s, near-zero CAPE, dry levels at and above 700mb (shallow moisture), low mid-level lapse rates and unfavorable forcing will prevent precipitation through tomorrow morning. The only band of greater than 250 CAPE will be in Mountrail County. This CAPE band dissipates by 2z, as a low-level inversion builds in overnight.

D1: Conditions are more favorable for some precipitation in D1 compared to D2. Moisture is present through the 700mb level and CAPE values are between 250-500 J/kg. In addition, a small low-level jet is present on the west side of an 850mb high tonight between 3z-12z. However, dry upper levels, relative stability in the mid-levels and little forcing will prevent precipitation today. Therefore, NO SIG is forecasted throughout the forecast period. Conditions become more favorable tomorrow afternoon.