NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		22		4			22		4
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	TSRA		HAIL		RAIN	RAIN		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis

A busy day is expected today for the project as an upper level jet streak makes it's way into E Montana. An initial wave of showers with the potential for a few rumbles of thunder in D2 will arrive in early to mid afternoon with the passage of a shortwave trough across eastern Montana. However, the chance for some hail increases from mid afternoon into the evening with arrival of an upper level trough. There exists some uncertainty about the amount of forcing in the area but dewpoints in the mid 50's as well as moisture pooling occuring along a tight theta-e gradient along the border of MT & ND ensures that at least moderate instability will be present. Additionally, weak capping or CIN exists over most the area following the passage of the morning shower complex moving out of the area by mid afternoon. Bulk shear increases from 30 knots at 22z to roughly 45-50 knots locally over Eastern D2 & D1 & will provide the organization needed for any storms that form to take on severe characteristics, particularly hail. Hail threat appears more pertinent for D1 as renegade cells develop around 22z & move SE, taking advantage of high dewpoints and considerable 500-1000 J/kg*k of CAPE forecast for the area around this time. The threat for hail will subside by late evening into early morning as the trough makes its way out of MT & both districts will remain dry throughout the morning with a chance for showers increasing in late morning for D2.