NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		0		3			0		3
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	HAIL		TSRA		NO SIG	NO SIG		TSRA		HAIL

Forecaster: Danielle Harr

Synopsis

There is currently a surface trough extending from a low pressure center to the west of ND and reaching southeastward toward D1. This is kicking up some storms this morning and early afternoon. By about 00Z, this will become a warm front. ND is situated just east of the upper level ridge as well. Flow is northwesterly. Both districts can expect highs in the mid to upper 80's for today. This could potentially fuel some thunderstorms later in the day. In D1, dewpoints will start out in the upper 40's, and in D2, the surface dewpoints will begin in the upper 40's to low 50's. In both districts, dewpoints will slightly decrease throughout the day. D1 will get to the mid 40's and D2 will be more consistently in the upper 40's, with some pockets of 50. With these dewpoints being so borderline, there is a possibility that it could support some isolated thunderstorms in the evening. At about 02Z, these dewpoints will likely increase again to the mid 50's in D2 and to the low 50's in D1. This may indicate that storms are more likely to occur in the later hours. The lower levels are are somewhat saturated in D2, but D1 is generally very dry closer to the surface. This could indicate that the storms that D1 may see will have generally higher bases. The midlevels and upper levels are saturated in both districts, which indicates potentially higher vertical development of storms. MLCAPE values are generally higher in both districts than yesterday. Throughout most of the day, they tend to remain around the 100-400 J/kg range, which could be enough to support storm development. There is quite a bit of capping in D2 for most of the day, but with enough lift and moisture it is possible that there could be some isolated thunderstorms, especially in the evening hours with greater dewpoints and upper level saturation. This capping becomes much more widespread by around 03Z, which is likely when storm formation would become more difficult with the decrease in surface heating. However, there is some lifting force predicted around the evening hours, with a warm front expected to move in between 00Z and 06Z. Because of this, some overnight showers and thunderstorms could be expected. This warm front may bring in a weak low level jet, which could, again, support storm development later at night (around 06Z-09Z). Likely, any storms that will occur in D1 will be prior to 03Z today. The storms that may pop up prior to 00Z in D1 have a slight chance for hail due to the greater amounts of instability expected around that time. For D2, the chance of storms is somewhat low but nonzero in the evening, and chances increase slightly into the nighttime hours. The chances for hail are also very small, however, it is possible since most of the storms expected are likely to be pulse storms that gain some vertical development.