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NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		23		6			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

There is currently an upper level low spinning in MT, leaving the district in SW flow aloft for the period. At the surface, dew points start out in the lower 40s, but rise throughout the day as surface winds shift from SW to SE. By evening dew points will be near 50 in Bowman. Instability is modest but exists today, with MLCAPE close to 500 J/kg. The cap erodes by late afternoon, leaving a window of 3-4 hours where convection could fire with any forcing that comes along. A 500mb shortwave approaches the district between 21Z and 00Z, and could provide enough forcing for a thunderstorm or two. The HRRR and NAM Nest have the convection associated with this a few hours later than I would. As the sun sets and we lose daytime heating storms should weaken and leave the district by around midnight.

Overnight, there are indications of a notable low level jet, but the best forcing from the LLJ seems well North of the district. Both the HRRR and NAM NEST have additional development in the SW late overnight and into tomorrow morning. Given this uncertainty, I will have to leave a chance for TSRA in the morning hours for tomorrow.