NDCMP Weather Forecast
| District 1 | District 2 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition (UTC) | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| First | Second | Third | First | Second | Third | |||||||
| Forecasted Weather | HAIL | NO SIG | HAIL | |||||||||
Forecaster: Mark Schneider
Synopsis
Models did not initialize current convection in southeastern MT along a slowly sagging frontal boundary. Looking at 700mb and 500mb levels, storms are being forced by the first of two shortwaves moving into northern ND during the forecast period. Current storms will likely remain just north of district, but first period HAIL forecast is warranted. During the overnight, the second (and main) shortwave will move into E MT and initially storms/forcing remain in northern ND. Tomorrow morning gets interesting because broader forcing shifts southward and the cap erodes between 15-17Z to initiate severe daytime convection.
7/27/25
Indices
| Lifted Index (<1) |
K index (>30) |
Total Totals (>48) |
Sweat (>200) |
Cape (>125) |
CIN (>-100) |
Bulk Richarson Number (>3) |
Helicity (>125) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | -3.7 | 27.4 | 57 | 311 | 688 | -188 | 14 | 44 |
| ISN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MOT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jefferson Index (>28.5) | Cross Totals (>18.65) | Thompson Index (>28.5) | S Index (>35.8) | Showalter Index (<=0.5) | Cap Strength (0-2.65°C) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 28 | 21.1 | 31.1 | 39 | -4.3 | 3.9 |
| ISN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MOT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Weather Features
- Cold Front
- Short Wave Trough
- Stationary Front