NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)012012
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherRAINNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Joseph Parton

Synopsis


Today's weather is not very active for either district as both regions are entering the base of the upper level trough. Afterwards, upper level patterns are expected turn to zonal flow aloft. As this upper level zonal flow sets up, dewpoints are expected to drop for both regions. Similarly, CAPE values are minimal to none for both districts. District 1 does have some chance of rain occuring late this morning into the early afternoon hours as there is positive vorticity advection into the area. However, with limited instability and only a weak forcing mechanism, there will likely not be any convective precipitation. District 2 is not expected to be influenced by the vorticity advection leading to no significant weather expected.

8/28/21


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

Dewpoint decreases over both districts throughout the day

Low amounts of CAPE present and not expected to increase

Region of higher vorticity values over D1


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 0.2 29.6 51.4 217 -83 -107 2 51
ISN -0.6 34.2 52.5 184 63 -6 63 10
MOT 0.4 33.9 50 156 23 -11 3 -8

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 31 23.8 39.4 45.2 -0.5 1.6
ISN 33 22.2 34.8 50.6 -0.6 0.3
MOT 32 21.5 33.5 48.5 0.4 0.5

Weather Features

  • Upper Level Trough
  • Zonal Flow