NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		20		6			20		6
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Grant Peterson

Synopsis

A chance of showers and isolated severe thunderstorms is expected again today. The timing of initial convection may be as early as the afternoon and more than likely continuing through the evening in both districts. A few could be strong to severe. The SPC has issued a marginal risk for a big portion of ND today. The main threats are hail and gusty winds. There is higher confidence for marginal hail in D2 but D1 is not necessarily out of the question.

A swift-moving upper level trough continues to coast through the Northern Great Plains. It is looking like both districts will be right under the axis of this trough at noon with the vort max set up to the east. Currently we are seeing around 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE but will decrease after midnight. All day we can expect a very moist enviornment with dewpoints in the upper 50s up to lower 60s. We also have some positive vorticity advection in the afternoon, inducing rising motion. The only thing that is unfavorable today is limited shear. As long as we have these three main ingredients (vertical forcing, moisture, and instability) our chances for storms are quite likely. As this trough propagates east we will be setting ourselves on the downstream side of the trough in the evening, bringing in negative vorticity advection which will decrease any chances for operations tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday we will warm up as a thermal ridge builds in from the southwest. We could see temperatures in the upper 80s and possibly touching 90 in D1! I am anticipating a fairly dry and warm forecast for Sunday.