NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		6		9			3		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	RAIN		NO SIG		NO SIG	RAIN		NO SIG		NO SIG

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

Stratiform RAIN will linger today in both districts. After 6z, NO SIG is expected.

Currently, western North Dakota is under zonal flow. Throughout the day today, this flow becomes northwesterly as an upper level low swings southward into northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota by Thursday morning. Upper level temperatures will be cool, and this reflects lower in the atmosphere too as the freezing point will be lower than 700mb. At the surface, two areas of low pressure are seen nearby. One in South Dakota and a second one in western Ontario. The Ontario low will strengthen and become the dominant low, resulting in northerly surface winds for the region. In addition, surface high pressure moves southward from Saskatchewan. Surface dew points start out in the mid 50s before drying out as high pressure moves closer. All of D2 will see dew points drop to around 40 by 3z, and 9z for D1 with moisture being pushed southward. What little CAPE that has lingered will also be pushed south from the incoming high pressure, leaving western North Dakota with near-zero CAPE values.

D2: Some stratiform RAIN will likely linger throughout the afternoon, but it will leave the district by 3z. In addition, this rain will be unseedable. After 3z, conditions are unfavorable for precipitation. With this, NO SIG is expected for the rest of the forecast period.

D1: With higher dew points, stratiform RAIN will persist for a few more hours compared to D2. Most models show this rain east of the district by 6z. NO SIG is expected for the rest of the forecast period, with a transition at 9z for when dew points really dry out.