NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		22		4			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

We find ourselves today in SW flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough that is deepening in the western US. This will steer throguh a couple notable nidlevel shortwaves, one this afternoon and one overnight. At the surface, we see a developing surface low over NW SD, with a warm front extending almost straight east just south of the ND/SD border. Dew points will be in the 60s today in Bowman, leading to strong instability this afternoon. The big question for the day is whether or not the cap will break far enough west for storms in the district, and models do not agree with each other. Based on the NAM, forcing doesn;t line up ideally to break the cap in SW ND. The shortwave is shown to the east by peak heating. However, current satellite suggests to me that the wave is slower than the NAM is indicating and may line up better this afternoon. This, along with lift over the warm front and on the north side of the surface low suggests the cap can break by 22Z-23Z near or in D1. Ample instability and shear suggest all manner of severe threats are possible.

After the initial convective chances move east, there is a second shortwave that is shown to pass into W ND late overnight, though current model trends keep this north of D1. Still, it merits monitoring incase it is farther south than projected. Our active pattern continues through the weekend, with possible waves and chances for convection daily.

6/20/25

Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

21Z 250mb Winds show SW ND in SW flow ahead of a deepening upper level trough.

00Z Surface temp and winds show a surface low in NW SD and warm front extending east just south of the ND/SD border

00Z Surface dew points showing 60s in D1 today

22Z Nam Nest surface temps where the rotation around the surface low is quite obvious

21Z 500mb vorticity

22Z Bowman forecast sounding with MLCAPE

00Z NAM MLCAPE shows good instability and some residual capping

00Z MUCAPE showing plenty of instability for storms

22Z NAM Nest MLCAPE shows capping eroding enough for storms to develop

More recent runs of the HRRR hold on to capping and convection does not develop in district

23Z NAM Nest reflctivity shows convection starting in the district

23Z HRRR (12Z Run) has convection start a bit farther west rather than in the district

00Z_HRRR (15Z Run) MLCAPE with capping holding on

SPC Day 1 Outlook

06Z 500mb streamlines show another shortwave coming in from MT, but passing north of D1

12Z NAM Nest reflectivity for tomorrow morning

Indices

	Lifted Index (<1)	K index (>30)	Total Totals (>48)	Sweat (>200)	Cape (>125)	CIN (>-100)	Bulk Richarson Number (>3)	Helicity (>125)
D1	-8.5	48.1	62.2	508	2622	-25	18	225
ISN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MOT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	Jefferson Index (>28.5)	Cross Totals (>18.65)	Thompson Index (>28.5)	S Index (>35.8)	Showalter Index (<=0.5)	Cap Strength (0-2.65°C)
D1	39	25.7	56.6	58.4	-8.7	1.2
ISN	0	0	0	0	0	0
MOT	0	0	0	0	0	0

Weather Features

Cyclonic Vorticity Advection
Dir Wind Shear
Jet Stream (PVA) RRQ or LFQ
Low-Level Moisture Advection (SE)
Short Wave Trough
Surface Low
Upper Level Trough
Warm Front

Soundings

Bowman Sounding Text

Williston Sounding Text

Minot Sounding Text