NDCMP Weather Forecast

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Transition (UTC)312312
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Forecaster: Grant Westerhaus

Synopsis


A warmer, less windy, and quiet day across the forecast area Sunday. The low pressure in control of our weather the last few days slides far enough to the east into Canada while high pressure and a strong ridge builds in from the west. Winds calm throughout the day as the pressure gradient weakens overhead. Conditions are favorable in eastern and central North Dakota for a popcorn shower and thunderstorm day in the northwest flow on the back side of the low. However, these storms will stay to our east and outside of the project area.

Sunday afternoon... Warmer. Less windy. For D1 temperatures in the low 70s and dew points in the low 40s. Calm, stable air under the subsidence provided by high pressure moving overhead. For D2 temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dew points in the mid 40s. High pressure moves in the from the west over the course of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will fire in eastern and central North Dakota today as conditions are more favorable outside of the project area.

Monday morning... A cool start to the day before the warming trend continues. Clear and calm for all areas as a strong ridge sets up over the Rockies. No significant weather expected for the project area on Monday before briefing.

Looking ahead... The warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough increases the chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday and brings with it the next chance for project operations.

6/26/22


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

High pressure moving in from the west will help keep conditions quiet.

A warmer day Sunday as the high pressure and ridge move overhead from the west.

Lower dew points today. Upper 30s to mid 40s.

A strong ridge builds in from the west allowing for a warming trend and calm conditions to continue.

Calmer winds today as high pressure moves in from the west and the pressure gradient weakens.

An upper level low to the NE over Canada will bring NW flow and showers and thunderstorms to eastern and central North Dakota today. These storms should remain outside of the project area.

D1 NamNest forecast sounding. 22z.

Williston NamNest forecast sounding. 22z.

Minot NamNest forecast sounding. 22z.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 1.8 9.6 48.9 67 0 0 0 34
ISN -0.1 15.7 52.3 141 -107 -136 3 28
MOT -0.5 25.4 53 198 189 -15 11 60

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 20 18.2 7.8 25.4 1.7 0
ISN 24 20.8 15.8 33.3 0.1 1.9
MOT 29 22.4 25.9 43 -0.5 0.3

Weather Features

  • Surface High Pressure
  • Upper Level Ridge