NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		19		3			20		4
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		RAIN	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Heat ushers in August. Conditional threat for hail today!

A surface low pressure system along with a warm front will move eastward into the region today providing weaking forcing. Some forcing aloft with both districts located in the front left quadrant of a jet streak. Weak shortwave will approach from the west and bring mainly flat topped showers overnight into tomorrow morning.

D1...

Lots of moving parts today in D1 for a conditional hail threat this afternoon and evening. Dry air will begin to filter into the district shortly bringing dewpoints down into the low 40s maybe even into the 30s. Warm air advection along with moisture advection could help bring in some more moist air. CAPE will also be lackluster with values only around 500 J/kg. Another limiting factor could be smoke that has started filtering in from the west, this could cause dry air entrainment. However, if storms develop they could easily produce large hail due to very steep lapse rates and dry midlevels. Bases should be pretty high today with the LCL as high as 13,000 ft AGL, which may also limit any rain that falls from these storms. Showers will be possible late tomorrow morning, but should remain pretty stratiform so I would not expect operations.

Operations possible 1-9p.

D2...

In D2, there will be much better conditions for thunderstorms overall. Dew points will be in the upper-50s to even mid-60s, LCLs will be lower around 5,000 ft AGL, there will be much more CAPE (1,000-1,500 J/kg), and steep lapse rates. However, the big limiting factors will be strong capping and lack of forcing. The warm front and low pressure system will likely stay just south or in the southern half of the district. This means without any forcing, it is unlikely (but not impossible) for the cap to be broken. D2 will have to closely monitor weather conditions this afternoon and evening. Showers and even a thunderstorm will develop into the overnight and early morning hours as that front and low push north. Operations during this second TSRA period is unlikely as they should stay fairly flat topped, but should be monitored.

Operations possible 2-10p.

Looking ahead... Hot weather continues this week. Showers and a isolated thunderstorm possible tomorrow across both distircts will remain mostly non-convective into the midday. If clearing can occur, especially in D2, convection could fire in the afternoon/evening giving another day favorable for operations.