NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		4		7			0		6
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		RAIN		TSRA	NO SIG		RAIN		TSRA

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Not as hot today and breezy early. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight thru briefing tomorrow.

Overview...Fairly unimpressive setup today as a shortwave trough bringing cyclonic vorticity advection will approach and pass over both districts tonight and towards the morning hours tomorrow. Conditions will not be favorable to support convection especially overnight due to little to no CAPE and other thermodynamic parameters. We will have to watch our dew points today, as the models yesterday were not even remotely close to what was actually observed. Therefore, I am taking little stock in the predicted low dew points predicted by the models for today. Even assuming dew points in the low 50s this should do little to support any additional convective development due to the aformentioned lackluster thermodynamics. Smoke looks like it will be present once again today over both districts, especially D1, this will probably keep us a few degrees cooler than the models believe our highs will be as well and introduce additional dry air into the column. Freezing levels will be much lower today only around 3.5 km, but any storms that develop will struggle to achieve those heights. Hail is not expected but a few isolated rumbles of thunder are possible overnight and towards tomorrow morning.

D1... Expecting the heaviest rain and most likely chances for TSRA to be down in Bowman tonight. A soaking rain is likely with widespread 0.50-1" expected with locally higher amounts. Any thunderstorms that are able to develop should be quite embedded and are not expected to meet hail criteria. These will presist to around breifing tomorrow morning before clearing out.

D2... Could see some showers a little earlier than D1, but generally lighter rain expected across the district. Some models keep it confined to the southern half of district while others overspread the entire district. Where it does rain, widespread 0.25" is likely with locally higher amounts. Embedded weak thunderstorms may be able to develop, the main concern would be locally heavier rainfall.

Looking ahead... Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday with the best chance for ops to be just after/around briefing in D1 and in the evening and overnight for both districts. Ridge will build back early next week bringing more hot, dry weather. Later in the week there are some signs the ridge will flatten and disturbances may impact the region. Now Hurricane Hilary will need to be monitored for the potential to bring additional moisture to the region later next week.