NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		4		10			6		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	RAIN		TSRA		RAIN

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Damp with chances for showers to continue!

Overview... Damp day today with chances for showers and a couple thunderstorms to continue. The first round of rain is exiting both districts, but cloud cover will blanket the region the entire day. It is going to be relatively cool today with temperatures only reaching around 60 coupled with decent moisture with dew points in the low to mid 50s. High pressure off to our west will help bring some southeasterly flow today and tonight. A second disorganized shortwave trough bringing positive vorticity advection will move into the region in the early overnight hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to continue overnight, with the strongest weather to be in that intial push near the start of the Sig period and continue thru the dawn hours as mostly just rain. CAPE will be almost nonexistent today and freezing levels will be around 4.5 km.

D1... Could see some slightly more interesting conditions down near Bowman overnight. One of the strongest nocturnal Low Level Jets this season really kicks up overnight coupled with very strong shear profiles. The lack of CAPE makes me skeptical any storms that could develop would become strong/tall enough to be hail threats. However, the HRRR has a couple of decent hail threats just on the north end of district coresponding with the nose of the jet. The peak timing for the hail threats would be early on in the Sig period tapering off around 8z. Again, the confidence on this occuring is quite low but enough to mention especially with the sneaky nocturnal LLJ. Rain/TSRA should clear out with plenty of time before briefing.

D2... Rain should begin to taper off over the next few hours. Tonight, expect showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two especially in McKenzie Co, but with the LLJ far enough south of district, no CAPE, and weaker shear not expecting anything to become a hail threat. Rain should linger through briefing tomorrow, similarly to this morning.

Looking Ahead... Ridge builds in bringing hot, dry weather for the first half of the weak. Next potential for anything looks to be Wednesday/Thursday.