NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		22		3			0		5
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	RAIN		HAIL		TSRA	NO SIG		NO SIG		TSRA

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis

Upper level dynamics will likely be the greatest determining factor of today's weather, primarily across District 1. Temperatures will stay relatively moderate in the low 80's to mid 70's at the peak of the day across both districts as low level dynamics remain W of district until late evening into early morning. However, an area of low pressure in N MT will deepen throughout the day & move to the SE, dragging with it a surface trough & strengthening warm front. This surface trough will provide some lift in the vicinity of E MT during mid afternoon in conjuntion with a deepening mid to upper level disturbance caused by a churning upper level trough over W Canada & the Pacific NW. Ample air mass recovery via breaks in cloud cover in the early afternoon will allow decent MLCAPE to filter into the area & provide a relatively unstable atmosphere, especially in the vicinity of SE MT. Any storms that form would likely become messy fairly quickly with hodographs favoring a linear storm mode. Mid level lapse rates remain relatively unimpressive in the vicinity of District 1 during this time but a modest dry slot in the mid levels should allow for a conditional hail threat based on the strength of dynamic lift in the area from late afternoon into early evening. After this upper level disturbance passes, the approaching aformentioned warm front anchored in E MT should provide ample lift for weak thunderstorms & stratiform showers to stick around in the vicinity of District 1 & spread up to District 2 throughout the morning until briefing tomorrow.

D1... Showers will continue to filter into the area throughout mid afternoon. A conditional chance for small hail will likely accompany any thunderstorms that manage to form in the late afternoon into early evening. From late evening until briefing tomorrow, stratiform showers with some rumbles of thunder are likely to filter into the area.

D2... Mostly cloudy skies will stick around throughout the afternoon with a nice cumulus field building in & temperatures topping off in the low 80's. From late evening until briefing tomorrow, stratiform showers with some rumbles of thunder are likely to filter into the area.