NDCMP Weather Forecast

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

The upper level trough that dragged through yesterday is replaced by a small upper level ridge today. Surface dew points also remain low in D1. The combination of low moisture, no appreciable instability, and general subsidence means it will be a quiet day in Bowman. Moving into tomorrow may be different. A notable upper level low/trough moves across southern Canada tomorrow. The first push of energy rotates around this low and through D1 in the morning. There is a return of better moisture throughout the column, but at that time of day instability is still minimal. Expect some mid-level clouds to move through, but be diminshing with time as the atmosphere transitions from nocturnal mid-level forcing to a more surface based regime with day-time heating. By around briefing, or shortly after, the main surface trough and associated mid-level vorticity moves through ND. Surface dew points rebound to the upper 40s and some instability builds in the district. Cold 500mb air will also aid in developing instability and the threat for small hail. However, models are suggesting D1 may be just a bit too far south for the better forcing. 700mb vertical velocities back this up, and the passage of the trough in the early afternoon instead of a couple hours later also limits confidence in thunderstorms in the district. The HRRR keeps development just outside, but the NAM Nest does have a few storms develop in the early afternoon. It will be interesting to see what the forecast decides tomorrow.

6/6/25

Indices

Weather Features

• Subsidence
• Upper Level Ridge

Soundings