NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		22		2			20		6
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		TSRA		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		RAIN

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Another warm day today!

Overview A stationary front coupled with a weak surface low are draped from northwest to southeast across the southwestern portion of the state this morning. These features will slowly progress northeast today. Expect this boundary to be more or less the dividing line between a dry day and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the front we will have southeast moisture advection bringing very juicy dew points. Ahead of the front expect dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s and behind the front dew points should stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. Any low clouds are already quickly erroding this morning, mainly in the eastern part of D2. Thermodynamic conditions will be quite variable across the region thanks to the frontal boundary. This is exhibited by the SPC's Day 1 Outlook that has only eastern parts of D2 in a Marginal risk today. A weak shortwave will pass to our north in Canada, but might extend into D2 this evening and overnight.

D1.. The frontal boundary should pass through the district completely by mid afternoon. Once this passes conditions will be less favorable for the development of showers and storms. Generally northwesterly flow will help usher in some relatively drier air and drop our dew points this afternoon. The uncertainty is how low our dew points go, especially with the models dry biases. CAPE should be very limited with at most 100-200 J/kg during peak heating hours this afternoon. Despite having little to no capping, no lifting mechanism will be present. It is therefore very unlikely anything will develop this afternoon. There is a chance that an isolated shower or storm could still pop up, especially if the frontal boundary lingers longer than expected. Thus around and a little after peak heating, I'll forecast TSRA but conditions will not support hail. Overnight, the shortwave will pass well to our north and conditions will not be favorable for convection.

D2.. Conditions up north will be more supportive of convection this evening. The stratus deck should completely errode by early afternoon allowing heating and destabilization to occur. The stationary front and surface low should move into the district this afternoon and set up in McKenzie and Williams Co, which should act as the dividing line for today's potential severe weather. In addition to the front, a shortwave will move thru or just north of the district this evening providing an additional lifting mechanism. Assuming those low clouds can clear promptly, expect widespread 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE with locally higher areas likely. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mostly limited to Mountrail Co. NWS is advertising these storms could contain up to golf ball sized hail based on today's thermodynamics. Approaching midnight, this threat should completely taper leaving chances for isolated showers but nothing of much worry.

Looking ahead... An upper level trough will help flatten out the ridge tomorrow and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cooling trend will follow and and significant chances for precipitation remain low through early next week apart from maybe some showers on Saturday.