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NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		4		10			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	TSRA		HAIL		TSRA

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible throughout the forecast period. HAIL is possible overnight.

Currently, the axis of a ridge is over the region. A couple small waves try to break this down this afternoon, but ridging should be maintained until a stronger shortwave moves into the region after 6z. Southwest flow will take over for the remainder of the forecast period and persist through tomorrow. Below, low pressure forms in Montana today and moves northward in Saskatchewan. Though dewpoints this afternoon lack, a LLJ will advect moisture into the region overnight. The strongest of this will be to the west of the district, but by tomorrow morning dewpoints will be in the mid 60s. The environment will be uncapped, but buoyancy today will depend on dewpoints. Higher dewpoints tonight and tomorrow will lead to more buoyancy.

CAMs continue to be all over the place today. Environmental conditions are favorable enough for pop-up thunderstorms over and east of the district this afternoon. The chance for this happening is low, but most CAMs outside of the HRRR have thunderstorm development close to the district beginning at 21z. With some spurts of enhanced upper-level vorticity, these solutions are plausible. Thus, TSRA is forecasted for the first window though the chance is likely less than 30%.

Models are more consistent with development off the mountains of Montana late this afternoon moving into the region after 4z. Though capping will begin to take place, an increased LLJ and forcing from the trough will likely maintain a line of storms into the district. The LLJ will also return moisture and increase buoyancy, thus storms may maintain a HAIL threat into the western part of the district. Though the initial storms will move through by 10z, TSRA will linger afterwards with development behind. This will be maintained up until briefing tomorrow.

Troughing continues Tuesday, and strong to severe storms are possible over and east of the district during the afternoon and early evening.