NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		23		5			21		3
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		RAIN		NO SIG

Forecaster: Ajay Kanteti

Synopsis

A much more dynamic day in store today compared to nearly every other day this week. As a vigorous upper level trough digs just off the Pacific Coast, A prexisting ridge over the central plains will deepen further & provide rapid warm air & moisture advection in the low levels in the vicinity of both districts throughout the day today. In conjuction with these upper level dynamics, a surface based low pressure system will move propogate along the SE MT & NE WY border, deepening throughout the day & providing rapid CAPE pooling in the vicinity of SW ND particularly by late afternoon. These thermodynamics will work in tandem with a series of shortwave distrubances to spark showers & thunderstorms in E MT throughout the afternoon with these storms moving quickly east. There is reasonable certainty that the lack of CAPE & large amount of capping in the vicinity of D2 throughout the afternoon will not permit upscale growth of storms throughout the day & stratiform showers will be the primary mode of precipitation sparked by the shortwave trough set to move through NE MT by 21z. The displacement of the surface trough further south due to the track of the low supports this mode in the vicinity of D2 but also sets up a considerable chance for hail in D1. CAPE values between 2500-3500 j/kg*k, moderate bulk shear, & mid level lapse rates in the range of 8 degrees celsius per km will be present in the vicinity of D1 in late afternoon & early evening & therefore a fairly significant hail threat will exist around this time given sufficient forcing from the surface trough. Into late night, however, capping sets in in both districts & chances for convection diminish almost completely as the dynamics propogate off to the ESE.

D1... A cumulus field will likely build in into late afternoon, with temperatures reaching into the mid 90's. A hail threat will exist with any cell that can develop between 23z & 5z. From late evening into morning, storm threat will decrease rapidly & mostly clear skies will build in into morning.

D2... Mostly cloudy skies will continue into the afternoon with chances for stratiform showers increasing into late afternoon & early evening. Into late evening, rain will move out completely & clouds will slowly move out throughout the early morning. Mostly sunny skies will dominate into morning.