NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		2		6			4		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		TSRA	NO SIG		TSRA		TSRA

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

A cold front is crossing the state today, with the associated wind shift already east of the districts, though the front does lag back towards D1 this afternoon. The upper level trough we've been talking about for days is crossing MT and ejecting energy towards W ND, though it lacks well-defined shortwaves as a focus. NEvertheless, where this energy intersects the lagging cold front and lingering instability there is a chance for a few hail threats. Overnight, the upper level trough starts really moving into W ND, resulting in more widespread rain and embedded thundershowers that remain for much of tomorrow.

For D1, as the cold front passes, it lags back towards you. Surface dew points hang on longer in the mid to upper 50s. This allows more instability to remain over the district. As energy ejects from the upper level trough and over SW ND, intersecting with the axis of instability, a chance for hail threats does exist. This threat is most likely to manifest between 00Z and 06Z, though exact timing is difficult to pin down with the disorganized nature of the energy. After the initial threat, expect widespread rain to move in later overnight, with low bases and perhaps fog. The rain persists through much of tomorrow, though some model runs have suggested some afternoon clearing to allow new TSRA development, and the NWS insists on hinting at a slight hail threat. I do not tend to agree with any potential hail threat tomorrow, but we will see what tomorrow's forecast brings.

For D2, dew points drop off much more quickly this afternoon for you behind the front. This leaves virtually no instability. The mid level vorticity takes a few hours longer to reach you as well. I do not expect anything to approach a hail threat. But with strong forcing overnight with the approach of the main upper level trough rain is still likely after midnight. There is a small amount of elevated instability that does exist over McKenzie County in particular, so an embedded thundershower is reasonable, hence the TSRA forecast. Like D1, expect rain to hang around for most of tomorrow.

8/25/24

Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

The upper level trough is almost here, with SE flow aloft impacting western ND

The main low and wind shift associated with the cold front at the surface is already east of the districts

00Z Dew points do a better job of reflecting where the boundary of impacts with the cold front will be.

Along with Dew Pts hanging on longer in D1, so to does the instability

03Z Bowman forecast sounding (MUCAPE)

03Z 500mb vorticity shows disorganized energy moving into the state this evening

Where the 500mb vorticity intersects the lagging cold front near SW ND there is a chance for hail threats this evening

The HRRR largely agrees with the NAM Nest on convection in D1 this evening, though it does show it weakening as it enteres ND

UND wants to produce a line of convection in D2 at 01Z, though this seems to far north and too ambitious

07Z UND reflectivity shows a storm more like what I would expect a few hours earlier and a shade farther north than I would expect

UND Hailcast does show a hail threat with the storm closer to D1

Watford City forecast sounding (MUCAPE)

09Z 700mb shows a more concentrated area of vorticity moving in on the front end of the upper level trough

This wave at 09Z is much more apparent in streamlines at 700mb

Precipitation associated with the 700mb wave. A lack of instability by this time means rain with embedded thundershowers

The same thundershower activity from the HRRR overnight

UND Hailcast does drag some hail into D2 early tomorrow morning, but again, it feels like UND is too far north with convection

By tomorrow afternoon the main upper level trough is crossing into W ND

More widespread rain, with perhaps embedded thundershowers tomorrow

The Nest's version of the widespread rain by tomorrow afternoon

Indices

	Lifted Index (<1)	K index (>30)	Total Totals (>48)	Sweat (>200)	Cape (>125)	CIN (>-100)	Bulk Richarson Number (>3)	Helicity (>125)
D1	-3.2	41.6	53.3	291	586	-41	7	146
ISN	5.1	27.6	42.1	76	0	0	0	-37
MOT	2.6	31.1	46.2	152	0	0	0	13

	Jefferson Index (>28.5)	Cross Totals (>18.65)	Thompson Index (>28.5)	S Index (>35.8)	Showalter Index (<=0.5)	Cap Strength (0-2.65°C)
D1	35	21.2	44.8	50.9	-3.2	1.3
ISN	27	12.3	22.5	38.3	4.7	0
MOT	28	16.6	28.5	40.4	1.7	0

Weather Features

Cold Front
Cyclonic Vorticity Advection
Upper Level Trough

Soundings

Bowman Sounding Text

Williston Sounding Text

Minot Sounding Text