NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)814514
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGRAINNO SIGNO SIGRAINNO SIG

Forecaster: Grant Peterson

Synopsis


Today will be dry and windy in the districts with a slight chance of isolated showers. Strong northwest winds in the districts will bring very dry air throughout most of the day. Models are suggesting dew points in the mid 30's in D2 and lower 30's in D1. Yesterday, models were suggesting lower dewpoints than what actually occured, so I would not be suprised if dewpoints do not go quite as low as 30's. Even with dewpoints in the 40's, we will still have very dry environment. Analyzing the 250 mb chart, there is a negatively-tilted, upper-level trough with a jetstream upstream of the trough. There may be a small chance of popcorn showers in both districts today; however, it is anticipated that the dry environment will more than likely diminish those chances. There is a slight chance of isolated showers from 5Z to 14Z in D2 and from 8Z to 14Z in D1 on June 5th caused from another surface low that will make its way in from southern Canada bringing in a bit moister environment. These showers will more than likely not be seeded because there is very limited energy and still relatively dry air in the area. The chance of possible showers are expected to diminish a few hours before tomorrow's weather briefing.

6/4/24


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Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

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250 mb chart: Upper-level, negatively-tilted trough with a jetstream visble upstream of the trough at 17Z.

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250 mb chart: By 04Z, the upper-level trough is in eastern Dakotas, and a very strong jetstream has made its way into D1 and D2.

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500 mb chart: At 17Z, strong vorticity values are making their way out of district.

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Surface chart: At 0Z, we can see the large plume of dry air that goes through D1 and D2. Models are suggesting dewpoints in D1 in the low 30's, and in D2 mid 30's. This may mitigate any rain chances we have.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)		 K index
(>30)		 Total Totals
(>48)		 Sweat
(>200)		 Cape
(>125)		 CIN
(>-100)		 Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)		 Helicity
(>125)
D1 4.2 11.7 41.6 99 0 0 0 131
ISN 2.4 21.6 45.5 114 0 0 0 182
MOT 3.4 28.1 43.7 116 -12 -20 1 172

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)		Cross Totals
(>18.65)		Thompson Index
(>28.5)		S Index
(>35.8)		Showalter Index
(<=0.5)		Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 20 12.5 7.5 26.2 5.7 0
ISN 26 16.3 19.2 37.5 3.9 0
MOT 28 16 24.7 42.9 4.8 0.4

Weather Features

  • Dry Line/Slot
  • Jet Stream (PVA) RRQ or LFQ
  • Surface Low
  • Upper Level Trough

Soundings


Bowman Sounding Text
Williston Sounding Text
Minot Sounding Text