NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		6		12			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	RAIN		NO SIG		NO SIG

Forecaster: Daniel Brothers

Synopsis

We continue to be in a mostly zonal flow at upper levels, with some wobbles into a somewhat SW flow over the next week or two. This pattern is generally favorable for periodic chances of convection. Today we see a continued surface flow from the east, bringing better low level moisture to the district. Dew points will remain generally in the 50s for the next several days, and maybe even the 60s on Sunday. The shortwave that passed over last night is broadening out and stalling on the north side of a surface low that is passing through SD today. As the system stalls we have good synoptic lift over ND. Low-level convergence in MT is resulting in continued cloud development that is pushed over the district, with just enough forcing for occasional showers in generally cloudy skies today. It looks like the clouds will hang around for the entire forecast period, but the periodic showers taper off by midnight. Tomorrow evening another notable shortwave approaches western ND in the evening. A bit of a LLJ also develops after sunset and may provide adequate forcing for some storms. Eleveated instability is enough to support storms, but timing and placement are an issue. The HRRR is a few hours quicker than the NEST, which lines up the ingredients better for storms. The NEST is later and shows storms weakening before reaching ND. The placement of the LLJ also suggests the best forcing may be just a bit north of the district.