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NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)012206
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGRAINNO SIG

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis


Another breezy day!


Overview... Smoke has significantly cleared out of the region today and should stay out for the next day or two. The frontal system that came through last night is is central/eastern ND today. Wind will pick up this afternoon with gusts in the 35-40 mph range possible. An upper-level low is going to pass well to our north in Canada, but it might be enough for some isolated showers in D2. Dew points will generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s today. Much cooler than recent temperatures with 80s in the south and upper 70s to 80 in the north. CAPE will be nearly nonexistent for both districts.

D1...No significant weather expected today.

D2... That upper level low could bring some isolated showers especially in Williams and Mountrail Co today. They will remain on the light and shallow side due to the lack of CAPE (<200 J/kg) and general forcing. Should be a quiet last day of project for operations.

Looking Ahead (Extension Edition)...Heat will return to the region in time for Labor Day. Chances for showers and storms thanks to an upper level low will return early-midweek. After that chance Tuesday/Wednesday, likely to be the start of another dry stretch.

8/31/23


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

NAM Nest high temperatures today at 22z.

NAM Nest dew points at 0z.

NAM Nest showing gusty winds this afternoon/evening.

NAM Nest 500mb map at 0z tonight.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 3.7 28.1 43.4 136 0 0 0 71
ISN 2.3 20.2 45.1 198 0 0 0 107
MOT 2.2 33.9 45.3 255 -8 -15 0 115

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 26 13.7 24.4 36.8 3.5 0
ISN 23 18.7 17.9 30.6 2.2 0
MOT 30 17.7 31.7 44 2.2 0.6

Weather Features

  • Surface High Pressure
  • Upper Level Low
  • Upper Level Ridge