NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		4		12			0		0
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	RAIN		HAIL		RAIN

Forecaster: Parker Alvstad

Synopsis

Some RAIN is possible throughout the afternoon and early evening. A line of storms from Montana will likely weaken before reaching the district between 4z-10z, however precautionary HAIL is forecasted in case instability is higher than expected. RAIN may linger through briefing tomorrow after the main line moves through.

Zonal flow to southwesterly flow will continue to dominate the upper level regime for at least the next few days. North Dakota is in a "Ring of Fire" position over a developing upper level high over New Mexico. Some shortwaves will traverse through this flow regime over the region throughout the forecast period, the first of which will be this afternoon before a second one moves through late tonight. By Saturday evening, the upper level high should be established and D1 could briefly wind up south of the best flow and underneath the developing ridge. This begins to break down by Sunday afternoon.

At the surface, a pressure gradient is situated from southwest (lowest pressure) to northeast (highest), leaving surface winds out of the east-southeast. These winds have streamed moisture northwestwards as dewpoints hover in the mid 50s, and moisture will continue to advect towards the region through Sunday night. This has created some thick fog over and east of the region. This fog will stick around D1 today, and will limit the high temperature. With surface temperatures lower, warmer temperatures at around 800mb creates an inversion which limits instability too. This also has created low ceilings which may be too difficult to fly in (Overcast at 400 ft currently). This fog cuts off in eastern Montana, and conditions west are favorable for severe storms today with higher instability.

With a relatively saturated vertical profile and a shortwave bringing ascent, some RAIN is possible this afternoon. With more favorable conditions, severe weather likely develops in central Montana this afternoon before congealing into a line this evening as it moves east. This line will approach the district by 4z at the earliest with most models agreeing on it moving through between 6z-10z. Even though foggy conditions likely weaken the line, MUCAPE does increase and other parameters become more favorable for HAIL. If instability is higher than modeled and the line arrives earlier in the window, some small hail may fall over the western parts of the district. Trends will need to be monitored. The heaviest precip moves out by 12z, however some RAIN may linger through briefing tomorrow.