NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		22		8			18		8
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	RAIN		HAIL		NO SIG	RAIN		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Risk for very large hail today!

The ridge dominating our area the last few days will push east. A surface low will approach the region from the west and a trough will as well bringing lift needed for thunderstorm development today. Positive vorticity advection will exist across both districts today as well. SPC has highlighted most of both districts in a 15% sig hail and wind threat today.

D1...

Clouds and maybe even some showers will clear out soon. A severe threat still exists for D1 today, but more conditional than D2. Some models have significant thunderstorm development likely containing large hail, but some do not. Like yesterday, there is a decent cap in place today which could inhibit storm development. However, large hail, gusty winds, and even a tornado are possible today. Clouds should exit the district later this morning making way for plenty of daytime heating. Dew points will remain juicy in the mid-upper 60s providing plenty of moisture for any storms. Sufficient CAPE exists with values from 1,000-2,500J/kg today. Large lapse rates will support hail development. 0-3km storm relative helicity is also strong enough to support some rotating updrafts with values of 150-300. Storm bases are expected to be 1,500-2,000m (4,900-6,500ft) which is a little more elevated than D2, this could limit the tornado threat. However, these elevated bases may help to enhance the hail threat. 0-1km SRH is only marginal for tornadoes with values from 50-125, where a number above 100 is favorable for tornadoes. Hodographs also show a messy storm mode favoring multicellular, but a supercell (especially embedded) cannot be ruled out. Like D2, there is a limited window for which storms can take advantage of these ingredients. This time will be in the evening.

High: Mid-Upper 80s Low: Low 60s Dewpoint (max): Mid-Upper 60s

D2...

A shower is possible early today. The best severe threat looks to be across D2 today. Very large hail, strong wind gusts, and even tornadoes are possible at the high end of the forecast while it is still likely for thunderstorms and small hail on the low end of the forecast. Dew points will remain high providing plenty of moisture for thunderstorms. Significant instability exists with CAPE values forecasted to be 2,500-4,000 J/kg. Large lapse rates will support hail development. Storm relative helicity from 0-3km will be 250-350 today, which is plenty to support updrafts and even rotating updrafts. Additionally, bases will be fairly low today 1,000-1,500m (3,900-4,800ft) today which will support a tornado potential. Tornadoes and supercells are possible in D2 today as 0-1km SRH is 100-200, where a number above 100 is favorable for tornado development. However, hodographs show a slightly messy storm mode could be possible which could limit the tornado threat. A multicellular storm mode with isolated and maybe embedding supercells is most likely today. Uncertainty with how cloudy it will be may limit the severe threat this afternoon and evening. Additionally, there is a limited window for the ingredients to be maximized today which could also limit the severe threat if storms do not develop in this timeframe. Looks like storms will initiate in district or just outside of it in E MT and central ND today. The best window for storms will be in the evening today, but they may develop earlier or later depending on the conditions.

High: Mid-Upper 80s Low: Lower 60s Dewpoint (max): Near 70 degrees

Looking ahead... Cooling trend continues with passage of a cold front. More showers and storms expected tomorrow with SPC highlighting both regions in a Marginal risk.