NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		20		0			0		10
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		TSRA		RAIN	RAIN		NO SIG		NO SIG

Forecaster: Grant Peterson

Synopsis

Today there is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in D1 and rain showers in D2. A weaker surface low is currently in se MT as of 17Z and will shift east over the day. At the 250 mb level, the wind is relatively zonal for most of the day. At around 20Z, a jetstreak will make its way through D2 that will enhance moisture transport into eastern ND. The models are suggesting the dew point temperatures will be in the 40's from 17Z till around 23Z as dry air will pool into D2, lowering the dew points in the 30's for the remainder of the day. The dry air will more than likely diminish the chance of rain after 20Z in D2. In D1, models are suggesting dew points to remain in the 40's all day. I would not be suprised if D1 will get dewpoints in the lower 50's today because lately the models have been underestimating. I am forecasting for a possible TSRA threat in D1 today from 20Z-0Z. My reasoning behind this is that some models are suggesting CAPE values up to 300 J/kg at 20Z. It seems as though those thunderstorms chances will develop a bit further east of D1, but it is still something to keep an eye on. On Saturday at around 7Z in D1, there will be a slight chances of rain showers till the weather briefing on Saturday. I did not forecast for TSRA for that time period because CAPE values will be quite low. As far as D2 is concerned, there is a chance for some isolated showers from now until 20Z as very dry air from Canada will diminsh any more chances of rain for the remainder of the day into Saturday morning. It is unlikely these chances of showers in D2 will be seedable.

6/7/24

Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

Surface Map: Here is a look at our surface chart valid at 18Z. There is a weaker surface low currently in southeast MT that will shift east over the day.

250 mb chart: For the whole day we will have zonal wind in both districts. A jetstreak is found at 20Z today that will enhance moisture transport into eastern ND.

500 mb chart: At 17Z, some moderate amounts of postive vertical velocity in both districts.

500 mb chart: At 21 Z, there is some more enhanced amounts of positive vertical velocity in D1.

Surface chart: At 17Z today dew point temperatures will be in the 40's in both districts.

Surface chart: By 23Z, models are suggesting that dew point temperatures stay in the 40's in D1, but will drop into the 30's in D2 diminishing any advancing rain chances.

At 21 Z, the RAP is suggesting MUCAPE values up to 300-500 J/kg in D1 which is suitable for TSRA chance. No CAPE in D2.

D2 Sounding at 17Z: This sounding has some indications of rain showers with very limited CAPE and relatively moist air.

20Z Sounding in D1: This sounding has a potential for TSRA with CAPE values at around 600 J/kg. The only issues that are against thunderstorms in D1 is the dewpoints may be a bit too low and there is limited shear.

This is the HRRR reflectivity run at 22Z. It is outputting thunderstorms just east of D1.

Indices

	Lifted Index (<1)	K index (>30)	Total Totals (>48)	Sweat (>200)	Cape (>125)	CIN (>-100)	Helicity (>125)
D1	4.8	25.5	43	162	0	0	96
ISN	3.6	27.6	46.3	94	31	-8	36
MOT	1.4	22.8	49.7	133	28	-19	4

	Jefferson Index (>28.5)	Cross Totals (>18.65)	Thompson Index (>28.5)	S Index (>35.8)	Showalter Index (<=0.5)	Cap Strength (0-2.65°C)
D1	26	16.7	20.7	37	4.2	0
ISN	29.9	16.1	24	44.6	3.6	0.3
MOT	27	20.2	21.4	40.8	1.9	0.5

Weather Features

Jet Stream (PVA) RRQ or LFQ
Surface Low
Zonal Flow

Soundings

Bowman Sounding Text

Williston Sounding Text

Minot Sounding Text