NDCMP Weather Forecast
| District 1 | District 2 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition (UTC) | 20 | 0 | 23 | 11 | ||||||||
| First | Second | Third | First | Second | Third | |||||||
| Forecasted Weather | NO SIG | HAIL | NO SIG | RAIN | NO SIG | RAIN | ||||||
Forecaster: Lynnlee Rosolino
Synopsis
An upper level ridge persists in Western North Dakota today, however there is a chance for significant weather to develop. A surface low pressure system inMontana will move through the region today, possibly stirring up some convection. Both districts will have sufficient CAPE values for convection today, but CIN values are also high, especially in District 2, thus suppressing development. High temperatures in both districts mean cloud bases will be fairly high, potentially limiting operations. District 1 will experience a small dry line this afternoon followed by a pocket of more saturated air which could influence storm development. A vorticity maximum is also expected to move through district at the same time which could further aid in convective development. This will occur this afternoon into this evening. District 2 will experience their most moist air early this afternoon and tomorrow morning. CAPE values are high enough for convective development, but there isn't a strong lifting mechanism to initiate convection, so chances for operations are significantly lower in District 2 compared to District 1.
7/27/21
Indices
| Lifted Index (<1) |
K index (>30) |
Total Totals (>48) |
Sweat (>200) |
Cape (>125) |
CIN (>-100) |
Bulk Richarson Number (>3) |
Helicity (>125) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | -1.6 | 29.2 | 52.1 | 339 | -63 | -295 | 4 | 124 |
| ISN | -1.1 | 26.6 | 51.6 | 181 | -33 | -193 | 2 | 164 |
| MOT | -0.5 | 24.1 | 51.4 | 351 | -317 | -345 | 0 | 121 |
| Jefferson Index (>28.5) | Cross Totals (>18.65) | Thompson Index (>28.5) | S Index (>35.8) | Showalter Index (<=0.5) | Cap Strength (0-2.65°C) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 25 | 12.6 | 30.8 | 35.8 | -1 | 3.1 |
| ISN | 25 | 13.8 | 27.7 | 34.4 | -0.9 | 3 |
| MOT | 25 | 16.5 | 24.6 | 32.9 | -1.1 | 4.8 |
Weather Features
- Dry Line/Slot
- Stationary Front
- Surface Low
- Upper Level Ridge