NDCMP Weather Forecast

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Very hot today with a slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

Overview... A weak warm front is passing through both districts helping to usher in a day of well above average temperatures with highs nearing 100 this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough coupled with a surface trough will pass over both districts around briefing. Expecting mostly just some cloudiness with a few isolated light showers expected. Once this trough moves past the region temperatures with quickly increase as our dewpoints plummet into the 40s. Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm could develop this evening during and just after peak heating. Due to the dryness of the atmosphere/surface, it is very likely anything that develops will struggle to be much more than virga this afternoon. A cold front will approach the districts overnight and into the morning hours cooling us down for tomorrow.

D1... Starting the day off fairly humid, but even considering the dry bias most models have in D1 dew points should considerably drop this afternoon with a pronounced windshift from the northwest. Conditions will not be favorable for widespread shower or thunderstorm development, but an isolated shower or even thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The cold front is not expected to make it to D1 until around briefing tomorrow morning. This will prevent any shower/storm development due to the lack of CAPE and dryness of the atmosphere.

D2... Similarly to D1, expect dew points to start out fairly moist and drop throughout the day. Models indicate dew points may stay higher in the east with Mountrail Co potentially keeping their dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s while Williston and Watford are in the 40s. Conditions will generally not be favorable for widespread shower or thunderstorm development, but an isolated shower or even thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The best area for any development will be in the east where dew points may be higher. Notably the NAM nest has conditions that would be supportive for hail development, but I believe this is more of an outlier. Additionally, freezing levels will also be much higher than days past nearing 5 km, making it a very lofty goal for any storms to reach. Out of an abundance caution, will predict hail which would likely be confined to Mountrail Co peaking around 0z and still be quite unlikely. The cold front is expected to reach D2 overnight, there could be just enough CAPE to spark a few showers and maybe a weak thunderstorm through the overnight hours.

Looking Ahead... The ridge that has been dominating our weather begins to flatten and some disturbances are expected to pass through the region. Could see a few days upcoming with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

8/18/23

Indices

Weather Features

• Cold Front
• Cyclonic Vorticity Advection
• Low-Level Moisture Advection (SE)
• Short Wave Trough
• Surface High Pressure
• Surface Low
• Surface Trough
• Thermal Ridge
• ThetaE Ridge
• Upper Level Ridge
• Warm Front

Soundings