NDCMP Weather Forecast

	District 1					District 2
Transition (UTC)		6		12			5		12
	First		Second		Third	First		Second		Third
Forecasted Weather	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG	NO SIG		HAIL		NO SIG

Forecaster: Jacob Azriel

Synopsis

Not as quiet today with the chance for overnight showers and thunderstorms that may produce hail!

A shortwave trough will move over the region overnight. This along with moisture advection bringing dew points into the low 60s and a low-level jet will bring the threat for thunderstorms including hail with the stronger ones. Models disagree to the extent of these storms, but has them coinciding with the passage of this shortwave trough.

D1...

Nice day today during the daytime hours. Overnight, a broken line of showers and some thunderstorms is expected. Models widely disagree on the strength of this line. Additionally, some cells could develop before the main line, which could become stronger. There will be around 1,000 J/kg of CAPE overnight as well as high dew points. Mid-level lapse rates will also be steep enough to support hail, especially given that this convection may be a bit elevated. Generally, the hail threat will diminish towards the end of the forecast period.

D2...

Similar story in D2 today with a nice day during the daytime and showers and storms expected overnight. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the district from the west. Models disagree on the strength and if anything might develop ahead of the line. However, given 1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE on some models, the low-level jet, high dew points, and steep mid-level lapse rates the threat for hail is present. The threat should decrease towards the end of the forecast period as the line weakens and the highest threat will be in the western portion of the district.

Looking ahead... The passage of a cold front tomorrow will bring another chance for storms earlier in the day. However, significant warm air aloft and capping are in place which will likely inhibit storm initiation in our part of the state giving us another dry day.